Japonska v hladni vojni s Kitajsko in Južno Korejo?

Japonski predsednik vlade, Shinzo Abe je pred kratkim obiskal tempelj Yasukuni, s čimer je zelo razjezil sosednje države, saj zanje ne gre le za poklon okoli 2,5 milijona padlim za Japonsko od leta 1867 naprej, ampak tudi vojnim zločincem. Če je za japonskega predsednika obisk poklon svojim sonarodnjakom, je za Kitajce in Korejce to čaščenje japonskega militarizma.

Shinzo Abe je v preteklem letu že zagnal pomembne gospodarske reforme, ki so državo uspele dvigniti iz več kot desetletja dolgega zastoja, hkrati pa  je Japonsko očitno poslal na bolj neodvisno zunanjepolitično pot. Pri tem ima krepitev obrambnih sposobnosti pomembno vlogo. Država svojo pozornost namreč preusmerja od severa, kjer je dolga leta ležal poglavitni potencialni nasprotnik, Sovjetska Zvezda, proti jugu, kjer se krepi nova velika sila Kitajska. Razen zgodovinskih zamer, imata ti dve državi tudi mejne spore, saj obe zase zahtevata otoke Senkaku (jap).

Michael Auslin piše v National Review Online o novi hladni vojni med Japonsko na eni strani in Kitajsko in Južno Korejo na drugi, pri čemer ZDA Japonske ne podpirajo v celoti.

From Abe’s perspective, the trend line in northeast Asia is getting worse. He has been rebuffed for nearly a year by the South Korean president, who has met with the Chinese. Last month, China established a controversial air defense identification zone in the East China Sea that partly overlaps Japan’s own zone over the Senkaku Islands. Instead of a firm American response, Tokyo saw Vice President Biden fail to demand a repeal of the zone during his visit to Beijing. China’s military modernization and growth plan shows no sign of abating, and it is starting to develop sophisticated offensive weapons such as aircraft carriers and stealth fighters.

Thus, rather than start 2014 on the defensive, Abe seems to have decided to take the bit between his teeth. It shows he’s willing to buck his only ally, the United States, and pursue a more independent path. His visit was a message that his administration will not continue to apologize for its history, having done so numerous times in the past. It is also a signal that he will not supplicate for better relations with China and Korea at the expense of what he thinks is in Japan’s best interests. At the outer edge of interpretation, that may well mean a more muscular response to China’s interloping around the Senkaku Islands or moving ahead on strike capabilities that could target North Korea. Combining this with a push for high-level diplomatic talks with Beijing and Seoul could possibly blunt the impact of his visit, but for the foreseeable future, Japan’s relations with China and South Korea will be in a deep freeze.

V najpomembnejši regiji sveta se rišejo nove ločnice.

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